Late last year, it seemed like the Federal Reserve had pulled off the unlikely — tamping down the highest inflation in four decades without triggering a recession, an outcome known as a “soft landing.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell had previously avoided commenting on Trump’s tariff threats and other sweeping moves, but those policies are increasingly shaping prospects for the economy this year. That means central bank policymakers had to at least partially show their hand on what they think new tariffs will mean for inflation,

Uncertainty spawned by President Trump’s tariffs prodded the Federal Reserve to predict a slower economy and higher inflation this year, complicating its decision on whether to cut interest rates any time soon.